Bank Negara may raise the OPR
BANK Negara’s fifth Monetary Policy Committee meeting will take place this week, with economists expecting the central bank to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) by 25 basis points (bps).
According to the latest Bloomberg poll, two analysts surveyed expect Bank Negara to hike its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.5%.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research said Bank Negara would likely follow through with a third 25-bps rate hike at the coming monetary policy meeting on Sept 7-8, bringing the OPR to 2.5%.
Besides internal factors, UOB believes the expected outsized Federal Reserve rate hikes in the coming months and global monetary conditions would also be taken into consideration by Bank Negara at the meeting.
CGS-CIMB Research expects continued rate normalisation by Bank Negara with a 25-bps hike followed by two more hikes in the first half of 2023.
AmBank Research believes Bank Negara will take another pre-emptive measure of hiking another 25 bps at the September meeting and perhaps another 25 bps (40% probability) in the November meeting this year, bringing the OPR to 2.75% by year-end.
Bank Negara will also release its international reserves as at Aug 30 on Wednesday.,
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Meanwhile, the Statistics Department is expected to release the industrial production index and manufacturing sales on Friday.
China CPI, PPI data
CHINA’S inflation data, due this week, is set to grow, but still remain weaker than those seen across the globe, according to S&P Global.
Bloomberg estimates the consumer price index to expand 2.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 2.7% in July, while the producer price index is anticipated to grow 3.2% y-o-y from 4.2%.
Bloomberg estimates exports to expand 11.7% y-o-y from 18% in July, and imports to grow 0.7% y-o-y from 2.3% in July.
Singapore retail sales
ING expects Singapore’s retail sales to remain in expansion although the pace of growth should moderate from the previous month.
It said sales will be supported by the return of tourists, although surging inflation should cap growth.
ING said inflation recently hit 7% y-o-y, which should sap consumption momentum.